Trump And The TCJA: What’s Next For Your Taxes

Will your taxes increase in 2026 and beyond? That depends.

Millions of Americans could see higher tax bills next year because many of the provisions of the sweeping Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire at the end of this year — unless Congress acts.

That said, while President Donald Trump’s overall tax agenda depends on many factors, experts say the extension of key TCJA tax provisions is highly likely.

“In 2017, when TCJA was initially passed, Republicans had a congressional lead in both the Senate and House,” says Tomika Bullet, tax principal at Windham Brannon in Atlanta. “Today, with another Republican-led Congress in both the Senate and House, we should expect to see the same support for an extension.”

What is the TCJA?

Trump signed the TCJA into law in 2017, during his first presidential term, bringing about a major tax-law overhaul for individuals and businesses. The law’s changes included:

The TCJA also decreased the corporate tax rate to 21 percent, from 35 percent, and created the qualified business income deduction for so-called pass-through entities, including sole proprietors and many small businesses.

Throughout his presidential campaign and into the first few months of his second term, Trump has called for extending the expiring provisions of the TCJA.

Trump has also proposed a slew of new tax proposals, including eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security income, and creating an External Revenue Service.

‘No guarantees’ about what gets extended

Not all of the tax-law changes brought about by the TCJA are set to expire. For example, the reduction of the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent is permanent — but lawmakers may still make changes to it.

That is, Congress may look at changing even permanent tax laws, as well as addressing any expiring tax provisions.

“Since most of the provisions of TCJA expire on December 31, 2025, it seems probable that many of them will be extended,” says Jan Lewis, a certified public accountant and tax partner with BMSS Advisors and CPAs in Ridgeland, Miss. And a tax-law package might include provisions “that weren’t even in TCJA.”

Still, Lewis says, “There are never guarantees in Washington as to what passes and what doesn’t. And it can change by the hour.”

Below are key tax provisions of the TCJA that will expire unless Congress acts.

1. Individual income tax rates

The TCJA reduced tax rates at all income levels and shifted income thresholds for different tax brackets. Before the TCJA, from 2013 to 2017, high-income earners paid a top tax rate of 39.6 percent; the TCJA lowered the top rate to 37 percent.

“The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced individual income tax rates by 1 to 4 percent, depending on the tax bracket. Individuals with taxable income around $93,000 to $237,000 saw the largest individual tax reduction from 28 percent to 24 percent,” Bullet says.

If Congress fails to act, individual income tax rates will revert to pre-TCJA levels:

However, most experts believe Congress will extend the reduced individual income tax rates beyond 2025.

2. State and local tax (SALT) deduction

There has been intense debate around the state and local tax deduction, commonly referred to as SALT.

To offset the TCJA’s cost, SALT deductions, which had been unlimited for most taxpayers, were capped at $10,000. That change disproportionately affected taxpayers in high-tax states, such as New York, New Jersey and California, who typically pay higher state income taxes and property taxes.

“While many of the provisions are expected to be extended, there is one that may be allowed to expire,” Bullet says. “There have been bi-partisan discussions, particularly led by Congressional members from New York and California, to either increase or repeal the $10,000 state and local limitation.”

3. Standard deduction

The standard deduction nearly doubled for most taxpayers under the TCJA. Thanks to this change, many taxpayers no longer find it necessary to itemize their deductions.

More than 90 percent of taxpayers claim the standard deduction, according to current IRS data. That’s up from about 70 percent in 2017, according to a report from the Tax Policy Center.

Taxpayers can reduce their taxable income by claiming a standard deduction tied to their filing status. For tax year 2024, a married couple may claim a deduction of $29,200 and a single person $14,600. The tax law allows an additional amount for taxpayers 65 or older and legally blind.

Before the TCJA, taxpayers could claim both the standard deduction and a personal exemption of $4,050 to reduce their tax liability. Taxpayers could claim the personal exemption for themselves and for each qualified dependent. The TCJA eliminated personal exemptions and increased the standard deduction.

Prior to the TCJA the standard deduction amounts were as follows. If Congress doesn’t act, the standard deduction will revert back to pre-TCJA levels, but adjusted for inflation.

Jason Wiggam, a founding partner of Wiggam Law in Atlanta, says he expects that Congress will extend a large portion of the TCJA, but he’s particularly confident that the standard deduction provision will be extended.

4. Child tax credit

Under the TCJA, the child tax credit was doubled to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under 17 years old, and the income limits were expanded to allow more taxpayers to qualify.

Under current law, taxpayers can qualify for the child tax credit with income up to $200,000 for single filers and $400,000 for couples filing jointly, up from $75,000 for single filers and $110,000 for married couples before the TCJA.

Other notable changes to the child tax credit made by the TCJA include changes to the refundable portion and the expansion of the credit for other dependents.

TCJA limited the refundable credit amount to $1,400 (adjusted annually for inflation). Previously, taxpayers could receive a full refund if the credit was greater than their taxes owed. For the first time, families could claim a $500 nonrefundable tax credit for dependents who aren’t eligible for the child tax credit, such as parents and older children.

If lawmakers don’t extend the expanded child tax credit, families will get a lower tax credit and many taxpayers will no longer qualify.

5. Qualified business income deduction (QBI)

The qualified business income deduction, also known as Section 199A, expires at the end of the year. Under the TCJA, pass-through entities are allowed to deduct up to 20 percent of qualified business income. Pass-through entities are businesses for which the owner’s business income is reported on their individual tax return — this includes sole proprietors, partnerships and S-corporations. Businesses can claim the QBI regardless of whether they itemize deductions or take the standard deduction.

Although there have been discussions about extending the deduction, it’s unclear whether Congress will do so. Considering the popularity of the deduction among small businesses and individuals, Lewis expects Congress to extend the deduction beyond 2025.

Bottom line

While Congress has yet to pass any legislation to extend the expiring provisions of the TCJA, most experts believe that with a Republican-controlled Congress, there’s a strong likelihood that many, if not all, of the TCJA’s provisions will be extended.

However, experts warn that Congress should carefully consider the impact on the federal deficit and other fiscal concerns.

“Extending the TCJA could add $4.6 trillion over the next 10 years, so Congress will need to find ways to offset revenue loss,” Bullet says.

Lewis expects that any package passed this year will not include enough revenue to offset the costs of the TCJA extensions. “That is why any legislation will likely not be permanent, but would sunset, with lawmakers making the tax provisions only effective for a certain period,” Lewis says.

“Congress can only increase the deficit for a period of time,” she says, “therefore it is likely that the provisions will expire within 10 years to comply with the reconciliation rules.”